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Curing the Flaw of Averages in Climate Change

Sep 2019 | September Issue
The Flaw of Averages occurs when uncertainties are replaced by single number average estimates. It states that plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average. A classic example is the case of the statistician who drowns crossing the river that is on average three feet deep. Cartoonist Jeff Danziger’s sensitive portrayal of this tragedy appears below.   
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